The purpose of this post is to examine:

  • How much draft capital has been invested in different position groups over the last 10 years?
  • Are there trends in investment?

Sources:

Here I looked at results for the 2010-2019 drafts, covering the last 10 years. To value draft capital, I focused on the Chase Stuart model, but I report the Jimmy Johnson model results below as well.

This is subject to some uncertainty in terms of position. For instance, is a LB really an edge rusher? I am trusting positions from Pro Football Reference here.

Generally speaking teams have invested slightly more in defense than offense (NAs here are for specialists).


Table 1: NFL Draft Capital Invested by Side of Ball (2010-2019)
SideofBall sum(ChaseStuartValue) sum(JimmyJohnsonValue)
Defense 7373.5 308606.2
Offense 6901.2 296992.5
NA 71.3 1245.3


By position group, teams have invested more in defensive positions, particularly the line and defensive backs.


Table 2: NFL Draft Capital Invested by Position Group (2010-2019)
GeneralPosition sum(ChaseStuartValue) sum(JimmyJohnsonValue)
DL 2839.4 129994.2
DB 2781.0 107807.5
OL 2458.2 106033.8
LB 1753.1 70804.5
WR 1695.1 66725.6
RB 1041.3 38496.2
QB 1028.7 62487.1
TE 677.9 23249.8
Specialist 71.3 1245.3


Next I looked for linear trends in draft capital expended (correlations of totals for each group by year). For instance, are teams using more capital for offense, or defense, or certain positions over the past 10 years? For instance, are teams drafting fewer early running backs?

Let’s take a look at offense vs defense first.


Table 3: NFL Draft Capital Trends by Side of Ball (2010-2019)
SideofBall r_ChaseStuartValue_Year r_JimmyJohnsonValue_Year
Offense 0.01 0.05
Defense -0.03 -0.05


No trends at all. Now let’s look by position group:


Table 4: NFL Draft Capital Trends by Position Group (2010-2019)
GeneralPosition r_ChaseStuartValue_Year r_JimmyJohnsonValue_Year
LB 0.42 0.41
TE 0.41 0.48
Specialist 0.19 0.07
QB 0.17 0.21
DB 0.16 0.09
RB 0.14 0.12
WR -0.18 -0.15
OL -0.20 -0.24
DL -0.35 -0.30


I have to admit these results surprised me. If we are to interpret these it appears over this time period teams are spending more draft capital on linebackers and tight ends, and less on defensive line, but these trends are not statistically significant with N = 10. Running backs, if anything, appear to be just as likely to be picked early now as they were 10 years ago. And teams are spending just about the same amount on quarterback, despite widespread recognition that having a decent quarterback on a rookie contract is a huge organizational advantage.

In short, it is not at all clear that the passing revolution has impacted how teams approach drafting position groups.