The view from my seats

The view from my seats

The Seahawks are known as a run first team. The numbers strongly suggest that passing more would lead to a more successful offense.

It’s well known in the analytics community that passing is generally better than rushing. See here for some examples:

Here I’ll review some basic analyses to make that point in general and for the Seahawks in particular for the 2019 regular season.

To evaluate whether rushing or passing is more effective, I’ll use two measures here: Yards per play and expected points added (EPA).

Yards per play is straightforward - generally more yards are better than fewer yards. This measure doesn’t take into account down, distance, or field position, however, so it’s not perfect.

Expected points (EP) and expected points added (EPA) is explained here. Simplifying a bit, for a given field position, down, and distance, we can calculate the expected number of points that drive will yield. By looking at EP before and after a play and taking the difference, we can get EPA for a given play. A play will generally have a higher EPA if it gains more yards, gains a first down, and puts the offense closer to scoring position. Brian Burke gives a nice example:

Suppose the offense has a 1st and 10 at midfield. This situation is worth +2.0 EP. A 5-yard gain would set up a 2nd and 5 from the 45, which corresponds to a +2.1 EP. Therefore, that 5-yard gain in that particular situation represents a +0.1 gain in EP. This gain is called Expected Points Added (EPA). Likewise, a 5-yard loss on 1st down at midfield would create a 2nd and 15 from the offense’s own 45. That situation is worth +1.2 EP, representing a net difference of -0.8 EPA.

EPA isn’t perfect either, as it suggests that teams should pass even if they are far ahead late in the game, when they ought to be running the ball to run out the clock. EPA is a good measure in neutral game situations, though, which is where most coaches are making decisions on run vs pass most of the time.

In general, passing results in more yards per play and higher EPA than rushing. Passing also has more variable results (sd = standard deviation). These results include all teams except the Seahawks for neutral game situations (excludes last five minutes of each half and overtime, win probability between 20 and 80).

For yards per play (all teams ex-Seahawks; total of 20647 plays in 2019), it’s clear that passing gets more yards on average:


Table 1: All NFL Teams (ex-SEA) Run vs Pass Yards per Play (2019)
PlayType mean(Yards.Gained) sd(Yards.Gained)
Pass 7.46 10.01
Run 4.54 6.57


And for EPA (all teams ex-Seahawks), it’s clear that passing results in positive results for the offense, while running is a slight negative:


Table 2: All NFL Teams (ex-SEA) Run vs Pass Expected Points Added (2019)
PlayType mean(EPA) sd(EPA)
Pass 0.18 1.66
Run -0.03 1.06


These are massive differences. These results show that teams should be passing by default, and running only in particularly advantageous situations. Pass to set up the run, not the other way around.

The splits for the Seahawks are even more stark (neutral game situations only; total of 682 plays in 2019):


Table 3: Seahawks Run vs Pass Yards per Play (2019)
PlayType mean(Yards.Gained) sd(Yards.Gained)
Pass 8.16 10.35
Run 4.94 6.66


And for EPA, where the Seahawks have better passing EPA and worse rushing EPA than the rest of the league:


Table 4: Seahawks Run vs Pass Expected Points Added (2019)
PlayType mean(EPA) sd(EPA)
Pass 0.33 1.69
Run -0.05 1.20


It’s not just true that passing is better than running in general, or for the Seahawks across an entire season, but even within almost every individual game. There were only three games during the regular season where in neutral situations rushing had higher EPA than passing:


Table 5: Seahawks Run vs Pass Expected Points Added by Game (2019)
DefensiveTeam Date PlayType n EPA
CIN 2019-09-08 Pass 13 0.27
CIN 2019-09-08 Run 15 -0.32
PIT 2019-09-15 Pass 26 0.73
PIT 2019-09-15 Run 21 -0.25
NO 2019-09-22 Pass 12 0.54
NO 2019-09-22 Run 14 -0.62
ARI 2019-09-29 Pass 9 0.53
ARI 2019-09-29 Run 4 -0.25
LA 2019-10-03 Pass 20 0.51
LA 2019-10-03 Run 30 0.09
CLE 2019-10-13 Pass 20 0.46
CLE 2019-10-13 Run 24 -0.21
BAL 2019-10-20 Pass 24 -0.42
BAL 2019-10-20 Run 20 0.08
ATL 2019-10-27 Pass 9 0.11
ATL 2019-10-27 Run 10 0.50
TB 2019-11-03 Pass 26 0.29
TB 2019-11-03 Run 16 -0.04
SF 2019-11-11 Pass 13 0.50
SF 2019-11-11 Run 14 -0.28
PHI 2019-11-24 Pass 15 0.26
PHI 2019-11-24 Run 15 0.07
MIN 2019-12-02 Pass 20 0.25
MIN 2019-12-02 Run 28 0.21
LA 2019-12-08 Pass 10 -0.06
LA 2019-12-08 Run 8 -0.09
CAR 2019-12-15 Pass 7 2.08
CAR 2019-12-15 Run 9 0.31
ARI 2019-12-22 Pass 14 0.17
ARI 2019-12-22 Run 12 0.04
SF 2019-12-29 Pass 6 -0.55
SF 2019-12-29 Run 8 -0.16


This is also the case across the entire league. Across all neutral game situations, almost every team in the league was more effective in terms of EPA when passing.


Table 6: League Run vs Pass Expected Points Added by Team (2019)
PlayType posteam EPA n
Pass ARI 0.09 293
Run ARI 0.03 203
Pass ATL 0.17 259
Run ATL -0.04 190
Pass BAL 0.18 199
Run BAL 0.24 255
Pass BUF 0.12 279
Run BUF -0.03 254
Pass CAR -0.01 240
Run CAR -0.09 177
Pass CHI 0.04 294
Run CHI -0.13 204
Pass CIN -0.04 291
Run CIN -0.13 222
Pass CLE 0.12 265
Run CLE 0.00 210
Pass DAL 0.18 273
Run DAL 0.02 219
Pass DEN 0.22 236
Run DEN -0.08 196
Pass DET 0.29 304
Run DET -0.12 274
Pass GB 0.33 283
Run GB 0.04 174
Pass HOU 0.28 284
Run HOU 0.09 252
Pass IND 0.25 256
Run IND 0.03 307
Pass JAX 0.21 222
Run JAX -0.01 214
Pass KC 0.33 290
Run KC 0.10 147
Pass LA 0.24 313
Run LA -0.14 216
Pass LAC 0.24 276
Run LAC -0.12 198
Pass MIA 0.17 277
Run MIA -0.16 183
Pass MIN 0.43 248
Run MIN -0.08 222
Pass NE 0.13 311
Run NE 0.03 211
Pass NO 0.27 295
Run NO 0.02 203
Pass NYG 0.14 289
Run NYG -0.03 198
Pass NYJ 0.15 205
Run NYJ -0.12 171
Pass OAK 0.45 237
Run OAK 0.06 205
Pass PHI 0.13 298
Run PHI -0.01 247
Pass PIT -0.02 280
Run PIT -0.20 233
Pass SEA 0.33 244
Run SEA -0.05 248
Pass SF 0.26 251
Run SF -0.12 229
Pass TB 0.09 289
Run TB -0.07 232
Pass TEN 0.38 239
Run TEN -0.02 237
Pass WAS -0.07 198
Run WAS -0.08 206


There was only one team where running was better than passing in neutral situations: Baltimore. This, however, was due to the great running ability of Lamar Jackson, not a traditional running game.


Table 7: Baltimore’s success with the run is due to Lamar Jackson
Rusher mean(EPA) sum(EPA) n
M.Ingram 0.17 17.57 101
L.Jackson 0.44 38.04 87
G.Edwards 0.20 8.69 44
J.Hill -0.27 -3.82 14
R.Griffin 1.02 3.07 3
J.Conner -0.40 -0.80 2
C.Moore -0.44 -0.44 1
D.Thomas -0.45 -0.45 1
T.McSorley 0.30 0.30 1
W.Snead -0.32 -0.32 1


Yes, it matters how many defenders are in the box, game situation, etc., but the general results are what matter in most game situations.

Implications of these results: On offense, passing should be the default play call. On defense, stop the pass first.

Thanks to the developers of nflscrapR for making these analyses easy.