Great post at PFF looking at the value of NFL draft picks (based on second contracts) under a hypothetical where you knew who the best players were. In other words, how much is the first pick worth relative to the second pick, third pick, etc., if you knew in advance who the first, second, third best players (by contract value) were? It’s a brilliant approach because it establishes a bound, and asks under the most favorable conditions, how much are top picks worth?

The finding is that the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart, still used by many teams, values top picks way too highly. If you add in uncertainty, not knowing which players will be the best, the traditional chart values are that much more overvalued.

With the draft right starting later today, I wonder if we will see more pick for pick trades that look one sided according to the Johnson chart and one sided in the opposite direction according to newer, more accurate value charts?

And now I see that people are looking at which teams tend to adhere to the Johnson chart. Who will be taken advantage of and who will take advantage?