I previously took a look at draft capital spent by team from 2010-2019 and draft capital by team by position over the same period. Here I will extend that analysis further with the question: Does draft capital spent have an impact on the subsequent year’s performance?
To do that, I’ll look at draft capital spent on offense and defense across the league and predict the following year’s DVOA. Draft capital will be determined using the Chase Stuart model.
Pro Football Focus has a new article looking at the positions that teams have spent the most draft capital on over the past few years. This is similar to what I did here three months ago.
Let me review what I like about their approach and add some comments:
They used their own PFF WAR metric to measure draft capital of each pick. Although I don’t fully understand their approach, I like trying to quantify value in this way.
Some random thoughts and observations:
Widespread mask usage seem like a good idea If we have lots of easy cheap testing (and at home), it would be much easier to allow certain people to break quarantine and possibly donate blood to help others get well. Opening up the Seattle express lanes and certain other roads to bikes seem like a great limited duration idea. They are not needed at present traffic volumes, easy to monitor/police, and provide a needed entertainment outlet with so many other parks and outdoor options closed.
My family and I recently spent a day at Walt Disney World (Magic Kingdom) in Orlando. Here’s what I recommend if you are considering going yourself:
Before you book, strongly consider not going at all. My wife and I agreed after that even though our day went ok, it was a big effort in time and money and it probably wasn’t worth it. There are many other theme parks and places to go.
Pat Kirwan’s book with David Seigerman Take Your Eye Off the Ball was published in 2010. There is a second edition, published in 2015, but I’m focusing on a series of predictions made in the original in Chapter 14 (State of the Art Football).
Here I’ll review his predictions and make some of my own for the next 10 years. No huddle for all. Here Kirwan predicted that the pre play huddle would be phased out, with teams going into the huddle for 10 plays per half.
Today’s question: What position groups have each team invested the most draft capital in over the past 10 NFL drafts (2010-2019)? I looked at overall leaguewide trends in draft capital from the last 10 years here.
This analysis might indicate that certain teams have a tendency to target certain position groups more than others. Let’s not overinterpret these results, though. Teams can bring in players through other means than the draft, such as resigning previous draftees, or signing free agents (veteran or undrafted).
Today’s reading about the draft combine and the theme is that it doesn’t do very well predicting NFL performance.
As I read these studies, what really stands out is how difficult it is to measure individual player performance. A predictor can’t possibly do well if the performance measure is unreliable or not valid, and it’s clear there is a lot of be desired from the performance measures that are commonly available.
